First posts concerning baseball betting strategy:

Baseball Betting System #1
Baseball Betting Tactics #2
Baseball Betting Tips #3
Strategy in Baseball Betting #4
System Approach in Baseball Betting #5

Under The Total in Games With Two Great Pitchers

During betting on The Baseball Underdog System, I always include the second set of stakes on the games, in which both of the pitchers are in the Top20 of the league, on unders the estimated by bookmaker total. As you might suppose, “the pitchers’ duels” usually finish unders the total, estimated by bookmaker; it is usually between 7.5 and 9 runs.
To show you how it works, the information below includes an example from real life, which shows a week from MLB season, using The Baseball Underdog System.

Evidence

Instead of giving you a hypothetical example that shows how to win using The Baseball Underdog System, I give you a real example of betting during a week on the MLB games from Monday, May 12, 2003 to Saturday, May 18, 2003.

Notice that this week was chosen by my employee, Nelson Williams, and I include this example at the end of the article not because it proves this system to be better or something. Any other week might be on this place. To make the calculation easier, the bets on underdogs of moneyline amount to 20$ and all the unders – 22$ (to win 20$).

You will see that during the first day, on Monday, I have included all the selected games with the explanations of their betting and removing. It will help you to understand what games really fit the system. After the first day I included the games, without explanations, and their results. Next to every team you can find its moneyline odds and initial pitchers.

DAY 1, Monday, May 12, 2003

Houston (-115, Lindenbrook) at Pittsburgh (+105, Torres)
The underdog Pittsburgh had lost 3 in a row coming into this game, so there is no play.

Result: Houston 9, Pittsburgh 4.

Chicago Cubs (-240, Prior) at Milwaukee (+200, Rusch)

Prior is in the Top 20 and the moneyline odds on Milwaukee are too high, so there is no play.

Result: Chicago 11, Milwaukee 5.

New York Mets (+105, Trachsel) at Colorado (-115, Young)

Since neither team is on a streak, neither pitcher is in the Top 20, and the moneyline odds are +150 or below, there is a $20 play on New York +105.

Result: New York 9, Colorado 6, for a $21 profit.

Florida (+115, Phelps) at San Diego (-125, Condrey)

Again, neither team is on a streak, neither pitcher is in the Top 20, and the moneyline odds aren’t too high, so the $20 play is Florida +115.

Result: Florida 6, San Diego 1, for a $23 profit.

Atlanta (+120, Reynolds) at Los Angeles (-130, Nomo)

Once again, none of the excluding criteria has been met, so the $20 play is on Atlanta +120.

Result: Atlanta 11, Los Angeles 4, for a $24 profit.

Montreal (+130, Day) at San Francisco (-140, Moss)

Both pitchers are in the Top 20, which means it is not a traditional play. But I’d play it as a $22 “under” wager on the day’s total of 7.5.

Result: Montreal 4, San Francisco 3, for a $20 profit

Kansas City (+135, Affeldt) at Minnesota (-145, May)

As neither pitcher is in the Top 20 or on a streak, and the odds are favorable, the play is on Kansas City + 135.

Result: Kansas City 3, Minnesota 2, for a $27 profit.

Day

Underdog Record

Profit

“Unders” Record

Profit

Today’s Profit

Total Profit

1

4-0

$95

1-0

$20

$115

$115

This day proved the system the best way it could, as there were 4-0 for underdogs and 1-0 for unders. Not all the days look like this one and you will see it.

Take notice that in Pittsburgh and Milwaukee games we are beyond the potential losses, because we are keeping to our criteria. The pirates team were in the losing series, and Milwaukee had a very risky underdog.